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China's housing market has seen prices falling since the end of 2023.
According to research published this week, house prices fell in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China through February.
The steepest decline was in first-tier cities with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen falling by 0.9%, 0.6%, 1.0%, and 0.5% respectively.
The fall in prices is the result of fewer buyers, and an increase in the supply of homes being put on the market. In Hangzhou, for example, 2,543 second-hand housing deals were signed in February, a decrease of 62% compared to the previous month. By the end of February, the number of second-hand homes listed in Hangzhou had reached 149,900, an increase of 3,815 compared to the previous month.
As house prices fall, homeowners are faced with the choice of selling below their asking price, or keeping their money tied up in an asset continuing to lose value.
This dilemma is expressed in an interview with a homeowner, Zhāng Wěi 章伟, who recently sold his house in Beijing:
On the day Zhang Wei returned home after signing the contract, his mother happened to be in Beijing to help take care of his kids. As he walked in and saw his mother, he couldn't help but feel the weight of his parents' struggles and the money they borrowed just to buy this apartment. That money they had saved over decades is simply gone like the water drawn with a bamboo basket. Zhang Wei felt so bad.
章伟签完合同回家的那天，母亲正好来北京陪看孩子。进门看到母亲，想到为了买下这个房子父母操心前后的奔波、借钱，他们几十年辛苦攒下的钱，转头变成竹篮打水一场空，章伟心里的难受达到了顶点。
In another interview with a couple selling their property in Hangzhou, they said they felt stuck no matter what they do.
Describing their predicament, they used a common phrase first coined by 20th-century Chinese novelist, Qián Zhōngshū 钱钟书:
Li Yixiang and Chen Lu both mentioned a phrase, "fortress besieged". They both believe that "those inside want to go out, while those outside want to come in" accurately describes their current situation. And "downsizing" is the first step they take to get out of it.
李一象和陈璐都提及了一个词语——“围城”。他们二人都认为，“城里的人想出去，城外的人想进来”能较为精准地形容他们当下的状态。而“反向换房”，正是他们向“围城”之外迈出的第一步。[1]
“Fortress besieged” is a well-known phrase attributed to Qian Zhongshu 钱钟书 which can be translated into English as a “Catch-22 situation”. We discussed this phrase, qian Zhoushu, and other important modern writers in one of our Member Deep Dives last year.
These homeowners now have to accept a new reality:
Many home sellers these days have to face the precipitous drop in house prices.
They thought that owning properties means owning assets that would not depreciate.
Yet they are forced to confront the icy reality repeatedly: every time they think the price has hit "rock bottom", an even lower "rock bottom" appears.
如今，对许多卖房人来说，他们正在经历一种“断崖式卖房”的体验。当初他们以为手里握着房子，就是握着一种不会贬值的资产。然而，随着被现实的凉水一次次地浇醒，他们每一次觉得价格到“底”了，但又有更低的“底”出现。[2]
Their experiences can be summed up in two statements, a common thread through all the Chinese media coverage about this story:
“If you miss the first buyer, you’ve basically missed taking the highest price” (错过了第一个出价的人，基本就等于错过了卖出的最高价)
“There’s no lowest price, only a price that’s even lower than the last” (没有最低，只有更低)
So, that’s what we’re exploring this week!
Favourite Five
1. 围城 wéi chéng
fortress besieged; in a Catch-22 situation
并非所有中产家庭都有意愿走出“围城”，也有相当一部分人一边怀着心病，一边努力生活着 - Not all middle-class families are willing to leave this "fortress besieged". There is also a considerable number of people who, while worrying about the future, still strive to live their lives. [1]
Note: Metaphorically refers to a closed-off situation in which no option is good. A well-known phrase attributed to Qian Zhongshu 钱钟书.
2. 断崖式 duàn yá shì
falling off a cliff; precipitous fall
他们正在经历一种“断崖式卖房”的体验 - They are experiencing the precipitous fall in prices as they try to sell their properties. [2]
3. 反向换房 fǎn xiàng huàn fáng
reverse house swapping; downsizing
在这类心理因素的驱使下，“反向换房”的现象开始在房市出现 - Driven by such concerns, the phenomenon of “downsizing” started to appear in the housing market. [1]
Related:
以大换小 yǐ dà huàn xiǎo - to exchange a larger property for a smaller one
由升转降 yóu shēng zhuǎn jiàng - to downgrade instead of upgrading one's quality of life
4. 捉襟见肘 zhuō jīn jiàn zhǒu
tight budget, living from hand to mouth
买房的整体预算又有些捉襟见肘 - The overall budget for buying a property is quite tight. [3]
5. 竹篮打水一场空 zhú lán dǎ shuǐ yì chǎng kōng
like drawing water with a bamboo basket, all in vain
他们几十年辛苦攒下的钱，转头变成竹篮打水一场空，章伟心里的难受达到了顶点 - He felt the weight of his parents' struggles and the money they borrowed just to buy this apartment. That money they had saved over decades is simply gone like the water drawn with a bamboo basket. Zhang Wei felt so bad. [2]
More: More on this phrase in tomorrow’s Sinica Phrase of the Week.
Consuming the Conversation
Useful words
6. 卷 juǎn
coiling, roll up; metaphorically refers to living a busy and chaotic life
确实想体验几年没那么“卷”的生活，至于以后变成什么样子，谁也说不准 - Indeed, I do want to experience a few years of life that are not so busy and chaotic. As for what it will become later, who knows. [1]
Note: An old favourite of this newsletter. It’s now a mainstream term.
7. 负累 fù lèi
accumulated burdens or debts
有人获得了更充裕的流动资金，也有人背上更重的负累 - Some people have gained more liquidity, while others have taken on heavier burdens of debt. [1]
8. 房源 fáng yuán
housing resources, housing listings
看二手房的人本就不多，更何况是动辄七八百万元的房源 - There aren't many people who are looking for second-hand houses, let alone housing listings that easily reach seven or eight million yuan. [1]
9. 活钱 huó qián
liquid assets, ready cash
最直观的感受是手头有了“活钱”，生活的主动权也在自己手里了 - The most tangible change is having “ready cash” on hand, and with that I feel I’m in control of my life. [1]
10. 搞钱 gǎo qián
to make money
在金融业工作的她，也始终是他人眼中的“搞钱能手” - Working in the financial industry, she has always been seen by others as an adept at making money. [1]
Note: A common slang phrase meaning the same as 赚钱.
11. 刚需 gāng xū
essential need
对方是一位刚需年轻人，想在杭州买房立足 - The other party is a young person who wants to own an apartment to settle down in Hangzhou. [2]
Note: Referring to the basic needs of life, especially housing needs, in this context, referring to the first property to live in as opposed to property as an investment.
12. 贱卖 jiàn mài
to sell at a low price, to sell cheaply
丈夫却不肯，“很坚持，不想贱卖” - However, the husband refused. "He's very insistent. He doesn't want to sell cheaply." [2]
13. 挂价 guà jià
listing price, asking price
如果挂价高于上一套的成交价，基本没有客流 - If the listing price is higher than the sale price of the last property sold, then basically no one is interested. [2]
Related:
议价 yì jià - to negotiate on the price
14. 踩坑 cǎi kēng
encounter unexpected problems or pitfalls
