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#083: Winter is coming for Huawei
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#083: Winter is coming for Huawei

Ren Zhengfei on the economic outlook and what it means for his company

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A leaked internal memo by Huawei founder, Rén Zhèngfēi 任正非, paints a bleak economic picture.

According to Ren, the outlook for the global economy, and for China’s, is grim.

For Huawei, it’s no longer about being ambitious and going on the attack, but about survival:

活下来,哪里有钱就在哪里赚一点。从这个角度出发,我们要在市场结构上调整,研究一下哪些地方可以做,哪些地方应该放弃

Surviving, making money wherever you can find it. We need to adapt our structure to the markets, research what we can do, and what we must abandon.

He reckons this is not a short-lived thing:

未来十年应该是一个非常痛苦的历史时期,全球经济会持续衰退。现在由于战争的影响以及美国继续封锁打压的原因,全世界的经济在未来3到5年内都不可能转好,‍‍加上疫情影响,全球应该没有一个地区是亮点

The next 10 years will be a painful period in history as the world economy goes into recession. Due to the impact of the war and the continued blockade by the US, the global economy will not improve in the next 3 to 5 years. And with the impact of the pandemic, there will be no region on the planet that performs well.

A cold wind (寒气 hán qì) is how he describes the reality of his memo. The imagery of winter flows throughout - with a feeling of winter (寒意 hán yì), and getting through it (过冬 guò dōng).

Ren also uses metaphors from Buddhism, warfare, the military and agriculture, with a bit of Song dynasty poetry thrown in.

So, that’s what we explore this week!


The Favourite Five

Artwork by Derek Zheng, The China Project

1. 寒气 hán qì

a winter chill

逼这个业务自杀,把寒气传递下去 - Force the business unit to close itself down, spreading the cold winter chill across the company.

  • 寒意 hán yì - a winter chill

  • 寒潮 hán cháo - a cold wave

  • 过冬 guò dōng - getting through the winter

2. 坚韧 jiān rèn

tough and resilient

78岁的任正非惯常以坚韧的形象示人,讲话直接、力量澎湃 - The 78-year-old Ren Zhengfei is used to showing a tough image, speaking directly and with power.

3. 一叶知秋 yī yè zhī qiū

the first signs of autumn

外界从任正非的讲话中“一叶知秋”时,“寒气”正笼罩在华为员工们的头顶 - As the outside world hears Ren Zhengfei say ‘the fist signs of autumn’, a winter chill is already above the heads of Huawei employees.

4. 歼灭战 jiān miè zhàn

a war of annihilation

现在要缩小战线,集中兵力打歼灭战,提升盈利 - We need to focus our energies, deploy teams in key areas and improve profitability.

5. 春江水暖鸭先知 chūn jiāng shuǐ nuǎn yā xiān zhī

the duck knows first when the river becomes warm in spring

如果说「春江水暖鸭先知」,那么时时接受市场反馈的公司最早做出变化,这也并不让人感到奇怪 - If the duck is first to know when the spring waters warm, then it is no big surprise that companies that get real-time feedback from the market make changes first.

  • Note: a line from a poem by Song dynasty poet, Sū Shì 苏轼, called River Scenes on a Spring Evening (惠崇春江晚景 huì chóng chūn jiāng wǎn jǐng). See classics below.


Consuming the Conversation

A new internal memo by Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has gone viral in China. Photo: Reuters
Image source: SCMP

Useful words

纲领 gāng lǐng

guiding principle

活下来,是华为的最低纲领,也是最高纲领 - To survive is our most basic principle; it is also our highest principle.

  • Meaning: it’s our bottom line but also top priority.

突围 tū wéi

breakthrough

这两年我们能不能突围,现在还不敢肯定,‍‍所以每个口都不要再讲故事 - Are we able to get through the next two years? I don’t dare to say for sure. So we all must not tell ourselves nice stories.

  • Note: ‘telling stories’ 讲故事 jiǎng gù shi was one of the most shared comments on social media about the memo.

棉衣 mián yī

cotton coat; warm clothing to get through the winter; to be prepared

任正非希望华为“2025年会好转”,但前提有炮弹有棉衣 - Ren Zhengfei hopes that things will improve in 2025. But the prerequisite is we must be well prepared.

  • Note: 炮弹 pào dàn - bullets or ammunition, also used as a metaphor for being prepared.

粮食 liáng shi

food supplies; business

把他们组合到合理岗位上去抢粮食 - They need to team up in areas where they can win the most business.

方丈 fāng zhàng

Buddhist Abbot; a senior executive

因此,提出的应对策略主要是“庙小一点,方丈减几个,和尚少一点” - Therefore, the response should be focussed on reducing office sizes, the number of executives, and team members.

  • More:

    • 庙 miào - temple = offices

    • 和尚 hé shàng - monk = team members

造血 zào xiě

make blood; generate revenue

财务要做好现金流的规划,危难时期主要是要造血 - The accounts department need to plan cashflow. During the difficult times the priority is generating revenue.

  • Note: 回血 huí xiě - return blood, make a return on initial outlay

军团 jūn tuán

army group; legion; team

因为奖金不是公司给的,是军团自己挣来的利润 - This is because bonuses are not given by the company, they are made by the team bringing in business.

  • Note: a metaphor regularly used by Ren to describe his teams.

预兆 yù zhào

omen

大公司的裁员是一种预兆,停止校招是一种现实 - Big companies laying off staff is a kind of omen; stopping hiring graduates is a reality.

铁证 tiě zhèng

irrefutable evidence

不停强调活下来也成了公司创始人对于未来不乐观的铁证 - Continuing to emphasise the need to survive has become irrefutable evidence that company founders are not optimistic about the future.

Three-character phrases

主航道 zhǔ háng dào

main course (sailing); main business

把人力物力集中到主航道来 - Put all resources into focussing on the main business.

啃骨头 kěn gǔ tou

chewing on bones; unprofitable business

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